10% COME UP
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.31
28.84 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.37%
EV $16.00 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
65.57%
40 openings, odds method
Variance
20.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 40 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $957 1,507 HUNT_COIN | 29.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $409 645 HUNT_COIN | 25.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 40 | $167 262 HUNT_COIN | 26.0% | 2 | 1.0 | 2.00× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $48.33 76.12 HUNT_COIN | 18.1% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× |
| Sticker | Monstersticker · High Grade | 90.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT_COIN | 0.4% | 35 | 36.0 | 0.97× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.37%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $18.31 | 87.37% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%High Grade 90.0%best hit —