5% Juicy
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.87
9.24 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.42%
EV $5.13 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
131.09%
162 openings, odds method
Variance
34.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 162 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 162 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $409 645 HUNT_COIN | 39.9% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 200 | $236 372 HUNT_COIN | 23.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 25 | $47.23 74.38 HUNT_COIN | 36.8% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.62× |
| Sticker | Virtus.prosticker | 95.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.2% | 155 | 153.9 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$5.879.24 HUNT_COIN$409645 HUNT_COIN69.79x
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$5.879.24 HUNT_COIN$409645 HUNT_COIN69.79x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.42%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.87 | 87.42% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%covert knife 0.5%Classified 4.0%other 95.0%best hit $409 (69.79x)