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A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.91
7.73 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.40%
EV $4.29 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
56.01%
506 openings, odds method
Variance
21.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 506 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $160 251 HUNT_COIN | 74.4% | 6 | 10.1 | 0.59× |
| StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $16.53 26.04 HUNT_COIN | 11.6% | 8 | 15.2 | 0.53× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 20 | $11.82 18.61 HUNT_COIN | 13.8% | 25 | 25.3 | 0.99× |
| Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo)sticker | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.3% | 467 | 455.4 | 1.03× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.91 | 87.40% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.0%classified 3.0%red 5.0%other 90.0%best hit —