5 % 5 dollar mystery box
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.17
4.99 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $2.77 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
28.77%
86 openings, odds method
Variance
10.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 86 openings and 4.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 86 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 500 | $128 202 HUNT_COIN | 9.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $64.65 102 HUNT_COIN | 23.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| P2000 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 26 | $31.87 50.2 HUNT_COIN | 43.7% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.31× |
| Sticker | Gambit Gamingsticker | 20.0% | $3.19 5.03 HUNT_COIN | 23.0% | 14 | 17.2 | 0.81× |
| Sticker | Apekssticker | 75.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN | 0.7% | 71 | 64.5 | 1.10× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
P2000 | Silver (Factory New)weapon · mil specIndia4life4416$3.174.99 HUNT_COIN$31.8750.2 HUNT_COIN10.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.17 | 87.50% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.2%mil spec 3.8%other 95.0%best hit —