low money baller

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.38

2.18 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.12%

EV $1.21 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d

60.83%

67 openings, odds method

Variance

3.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

42 openings · below min

7 days

62 openings · below min

30 days

67 openings · below min

since tracking started

67 openings · below min

-0.5%57.5%115.5%

Small sample. 67 openings and 6.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	42	44.40%±59.7	—	odds
7d	62	65.66%±49.2	—	odds
30d	67	60.83%±47.3	—	odds
All	67	60.83%±47.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 67 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Astralissticker	1 in 40	$11.94 18.81 HUNT_COIN	24.8%	2	1.7	1.19×
Sticker \| Gambit Gaming (Holo)sticker	1 in 40	$8.53 13.44 HUNT_COIN	17.7%	1	1.7	0.60×
Sticker \| Purrurists (Foil)sticker · Legendary	1 in 20	$6.52 10.27 HUNT_COIN	27.0%	1	3.4	0.30×
Sticker \| Dust FA (Foil)sticker · Legendary	1 in 20	$4.73 7.45 HUNT_COIN	19.6%	2	3.4	0.60×
Sticker \| Unicorn (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 20	$2.43 3.82 HUNT_COIN	10.1%	3	3.4	0.90×
Souvenir P90 \| Ancient Earth (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Common	80.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	0.8%	58	53.6	1.08×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.