2 dollar 20% 4x min
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.26
1.99 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.49%
EV $1.11 from 3 items
Observed RTP, 30d
74.46%
87 openings, odds method
Variance
3.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 87 openings and 17.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values3 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 87 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $9.52 15 HUNT_COIN | 25.8% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 17.0% | $4.76 7.5 HUNT_COIN | 73.2% | 15 | 14.8 | 1.01× |
| Sticker | NAF (Gold)sticker | 80.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.9% | 71 | 69.6 | 1.02× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.49%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.26 | 87.49% | 3 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.0%restricted 17.0%other 80.0%best hit —