3 percent 28x
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.56
2.45 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.30%
EV $1.36 from 2 items
Observed RTP, 30d
58.85%
549 openings, odds method
Variance
23.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 549 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $44.44 70 HUNT_COIN | 98.2% | 11 | 16.5 | 0.67× |
| Sticker | Apekssticker | 97.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN | 1.8% | 538 | 532.5 | 1.01× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.30%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.56 | 87.30% | 2 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 3.0%other 97.0%best hit —