10% Purple
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.52
3.97 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.66%
EV $2.23 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.49%
1,496 openings, odds method
Variance
106.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,496 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife$2.523.97 HUNT_COIN$250394 HUNT_COIN99.18x
★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covertTerracidre$2.523.97 HUNT_COIN$140221 HUNT_COIN55.60x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.66%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.52 | 88.66% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 3.0%covert 4.2%extraordinary 0.0%covert knife 0.1%Mythical 0.2%violet 0.5%blue 2.0%gray 90.0%best hit $250 (99.18x)