10% Hydra Chance
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.35
32.05 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.36%
EV $17.78 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
51.09%
140 openings, odds method
Variance
39.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 140 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 276 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $2,594 4,086 HUNT_COIN | 29.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 333 | $708 1,116 HUNT_COIN | 12.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $416 656 HUNT_COIN | 11.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 100 | $209 330 HUNT_COIN | 11.8% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.09× |
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $146 230 HUNT_COIN | 8.2% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.09× |
| Sticker | Flammable (Foil)sticker · exotic | 1 in 100 | $82.72 130 HUNT_COIN | 4.7% | 7 | 2.8 | 2.54× |
| Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $69.30 109 HUNT_COIN | 3.9% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.09× |
| AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 20 | $65.97 104 HUNT_COIN | 18.6% | 16 | 13.8 | 1.16× |
| G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 244 | 248.4 | 0.98× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$20.3532.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$20.3532.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$20.3532.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$20.3532.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$20.3532.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer GradeDiabloPhD$20.3532.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkDiabloPhD$20.3532.05 HUNT_COIN$65.97104 HUNT_COIN3.24x
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert$20.3532.05 HUNT_COIN$209330 HUNT_COIN10.29x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$20.3532.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade$20.3532.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.36%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $20.35 | 87.36% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.0%Covert 1.0%extraordinary 1.0%exotic 1.0%pink 5.0%Consumer Grade 90.0%best hit —