Imagine hitting this tho
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.08
0.13 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.12%
EV $0.07 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.71%
373 openings, odds method
Variance
34684.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
50.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 373 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 10,000,000 | $48.6K 76,561 HUNT_COIN | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | Fly Highsticker · #4b69ff | 50.0% | $0.10 0.15 HUNT_COIN | 64.7% | 165 | 186.5 | 0.88× |
| Sticker | Clicking Headssticker · Rare | 22.0% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT_COIN | 19.0% | 93 | 82.1 | 1.13× |
| Sticker | Apekssticker | 28.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN | 9.7% | 115 | 104.4 | 1.10× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 10 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.12%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.08 | 89.12% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%#4b69ff 50.0%Rare 22.0%other 28.0%best hit —