lucky knife case
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.56
5.6 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.39%
EV $3.11 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
117.56%
190 openings, odds method
Variance
35.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 190 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 190 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 100 | $191 301 HUNT_COIN | 61.5% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.58× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $89.47 141 HUNT_COIN | 14.4% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 200 | $71.61 113 HUNT_COIN | 11.5% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $69.44 109 HUNT_COIN | 11.2% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| Sticker | Kitted Outsticker · high | 97.5% | $0.04 0.07 HUNT_COIN | 1.4% | 184 | 185.3 | 0.99× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · CovertDiabloPhD$3.565.6 HUNT_COIN$191301 HUNT_COIN53.75x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · CovertDiabloPhD$3.565.6 HUNT_COIN$191301 HUNT_COIN53.75x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.39%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.56 | 87.39% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 1.0%covert 1.0%covert knife 0.5%high 97.5%best hit $191 (53.75x)