7 percent baller
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.24
1.96 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.33%
EV $1.09 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.80%
592 openings, odds method
Variance
11.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 592 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 1 in 33 | $22.22 35 HUNT_COIN | 61.3% | 21 | 17.8 | 1.18× |
| Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · blue | 1 in 50 | $12.92 20.35 HUNT_COIN | 23.8% | 10 | 11.8 | 0.84× |
| Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 67 | $6.19 9.75 HUNT_COIN | 8.5% | 10 | 8.9 | 1.13× |
| StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec | 50.0% | $0.08 0.13 HUNT_COIN | 3.8% | 295 | 296.0 | 1.00× |
| Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 43.5% | $0.06 0.1 HUNT_COIN | 2.5% | 256 | 257.5 | 0.99× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$1.241.96 HUNT_COIN$0.080.13 HUNT_COIN0.07x
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specTerorizezBabe.$1.241.96 HUNT_COIN$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN0.05x
StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$1.241.96 HUNT_COIN$0.080.13 HUNT_COIN0.07x
StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$1.241.96 HUNT_COIN$0.080.13 HUNT_COIN0.07x
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specTerorizezBabe.$1.241.96 HUNT_COIN$0.060.1 HUNT_COIN0.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.24 | 87.33% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMythical 3.0%blue 2.0%#8847ff 1.5%milspec 50.0%mil spec 43.5%best hit —