20% knife
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.70
2.67 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.61%
EV $1.49 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.15%
2,126 openings, odds method
Variance
18.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,126 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $69.44 109 HUNT_COIN | 46.8% | 29 | 21.3 | 1.36× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $18.41 28.99 HUNT_COIN | 12.4% | 19 | 21.3 | 0.89× |
| Sticker | Lucky 13 (Foil)sticker · Exotic | 1 in 100 | $9.03 14.23 HUNT_COIN | 6.1% | 22 | 21.3 | 1.03× |
| Sticker | Dragon Lore (Foil)sticker · exotic | 1 in 100 | $7.58 11.94 HUNT_COIN | 5.1% | 19 | 21.3 | 0.89× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $7.56 11.91 HUNT_COIN | 5.1% | 21 | 21.3 | 0.99× |
| Sticker | Battle Scarred (Holo)sticker · Mythical | 1 in 100 | $7.49 11.79 HUNT_COIN | 5.0% | 14 | 21.3 | 0.66× |
| Sticker | Dust FA (Foil)sticker · Legendary | 1 in 20 | $4.73 7.45 HUNT_COIN | 15.9% | 118 | 106.3 | 1.11× |
| Sticker | Easy Peasysticker · #4b69ff | 1 in 11 | $0.48 0.76 HUNT_COIN | 2.9% | 199 | 191.3 | 1.04× |
| Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo)sticker | 80.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.7% | 1,685 | 1700.8 | 0.99× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 10 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.61%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.70 | 87.61% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.0%Exotic 1.0%exotic 1.0%classified 1.0%Mythical 1.0%Legendary 5.0%#4b69ff 9.0%other 80.0%best hit —