x20
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.52
5.54 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.32%
EV $3.07 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.98%
839 openings, odds method
Variance
12.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 839 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $69.44 109 HUNT_COIN | 67.8% | 25 | 25.2 | 0.99× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $18.41 28.99 HUNT_COIN | 18.0% | 18 | 25.2 | 0.72× |
| M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $14.15 22.29 HUNT_COIN | 13.8% | 20 | 25.2 | 0.79× |
| Sticker | Retro Zeussticker · Rare | 91.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.4% | 776 | 763.5 | 1.02× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.32%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.52 | 87.32% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.0%classified 3.0%Rare 91.0%best hit —