Broke battler

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.03

0.05 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

78.00%

EV $0.02 from 4 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.55%

1,332 openings, odds method

Variance

0.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

60.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.02%±5.66196 openings

7 days

80.49%±2.381,110 openings

30 days

79.55%±2.171,332 openings

since tracking started

79.55%±2.171,332 openings

76.5%84.5%92.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	196	86.02%±5.66	+2.8σ	odds
7d	1,110	80.49%±2.38	+2.0σ	odds
30d	1,332	79.55%±2.17	+1.4σ	odds
All	1,332	79.55%±2.17	+1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,337 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| gla1ve (Glitter)sticker	10.0%	$0.05 0.08 HUNT_COIN	20.5%	134	133.7	1.00×
AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	10.0%	$0.04 0.07 HUNT_COIN	17.9%	144	133.7	1.08×
Nova \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	40.0%	$0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN	41.0%	558	534.8	1.04×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	40.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	20.5%	501	534.8	0.94×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeGiftedd$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.40x10m

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeGiftedd$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.40x11m

AUG | Steel Sentinel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialGiftedd$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.040.07 HUNT_COIN1.40x11m

Sticker | gla1ve (Glitter)stickerGiftedd$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.050.08 HUNT_COIN1.60x27m

Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerGiftedd$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.80x27m

AUG | Steel Sentinel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialGiftedd$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.040.07 HUNT_COIN1.40x27m

Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerGiftedd$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.030.04 HUNT_COIN0.80x39m

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeGiftedd$0.030.05 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.40x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 78.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$0.03	78.00%	4

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedother 10.0%industrial 10.0%consumer 40.0%Consumer Grade 40.0%best hit —