Best cheap 11%

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.31

0.49 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.14%

EV $0.27 from 2 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.74%

288 openings, odds method

Variance

5.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

48 openings · below min

7 days

61.15%±35.31172 openings

30 days

82.74%±27.29288 openings

since tracking started

82.74%±27.29288 openings

-0.5%67.0%134.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	48	67.01%±66.8	—	odds
7d	172	61.15%±35.3	−1.4σ	odds
30d	288	82.74%±27.3	−0.3σ	odds
All	288	82.74%±27.3	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 288 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	11.0%	$2.36 3.72 HUNT_COIN	95.8%	30	31.7	0.95×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	89.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	4.2%	258	256.3	1.01×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.310.49 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.04x9h

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeSr.Calavera$0.310.49 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.04x9h

Souvenir SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$0.310.49 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.04x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.14%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$0.31	87.14%	2

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#d32ee6 11.0%Consumer Grade 89.0%best hit —