Best value
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.37
0.58 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.43%
EV $0.33 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
65.98%
311 openings, odds method
Variance
6.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 311 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $12.08 19.03 HUNT_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 417 | $4.76 7.5 HUNT_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| Sticker | Dust FA (Foil)sticker · Legendary | 1 in 400 | $4.73 7.45 HUNT_COIN | 3.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| AWP | Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 22 | $3.32 5.23 HUNT_COIN | 45.9% | 16 | 14.0 | 1.14× |
| AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $2.81 4.42 HUNT_COIN | 43.1% | 5 | 15.6 | 0.32× |
| P90 | Sand Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 3.5% | 289 | 279.9 | 1.03× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
P90 | Sand Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerMarius Tutunaru$0.370.58 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.43%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.37 | 88.43% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%restricted 5.2%Legendary 0.3%#8847ff 4.5%consumer 90.0%best hit —