Love sharing
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.31
0.49 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.04%
EV $0.27 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.86%
122 openings, odds method
Variance
52.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 63
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 122 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 122 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $77.64 122 HUNT_COIN | 14.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 667 | $26.03 40.99 HUNT_COIN | 14.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| P90 | Blind Spot (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 1 in 250 | $13.66 21.52 HUNT_COIN | 20.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon | 1 in 100 | $5.84 9.2 HUNT_COIN | 21.3% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.64× |
| Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 32.4% | $0.17 0.27 HUNT_COIN | 20.3% | 28 | 39.5 | 0.71× |
| Sticker | OG (Glitter)sticker | 26.0% | $0.08 0.12 HUNT_COIN | 7.2% | 33 | 31.7 | 1.04× |
| Sticker | TV On Miragesticker · high | 20.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN | 1.9% | 26 | 24.4 | 1.07× |
| Sticker | Virtus.prosticker | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.9% | 32 | 24.4 | 1.31× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$0.310.49 HUNT_COIN$0.170.27 HUNT_COIN0.55x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.04%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.31 | 88.04% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%violet 0.4%uncommon 1.0%mil spec 32.4%other 46.0%high 20.0%best hit —