1% KNIFE
A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$1.75
Advertised RTP
87.51%
EV $1.53 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.32%
38.6K openings, odds method
Variance
105.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 253
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 813 | $412 | 33.1% | 70 | 47.5 | 1.47× |
| ★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 1 in 368 | $185 | 32.8% | 132 | 105.0 | 1.26× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 96 | $48.14 | 32.9% | 215 | 403.2 | 0.53× |
| MP9 | Buff Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · gray | 32.9% | $0.02 | 0.4% | 12,809 | 12676.9 | 1.01× |
| MAC-10 | Storm Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · gray | 32.9% | $0.02 | 0.4% | 12,682 | 12677.7 | 1.00× |
| Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested)weapon · gray | 32.9% | $0.02 | 0.4% | 12,680 | 12677.7 | 1.00× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/1-knife, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.51%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $1.75 | 87.51% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1.75 | 87.50% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1.75 | 87.35% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1.75 | 87.59% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.75 | 87.61% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $1.75 | 87.45% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.75 | 87.85% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1.75 | 87.54% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1.75 | 87.67% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1.75 | 87.89% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1.75 | 87.69% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1.75 | 87.47% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1.75 | 87.88% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.75 | 87.68% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.75 | 87.13% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1.75 | 87.82% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.75 | 87.45% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.75 | 87.67% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.2%gold 0.3%gray 98.6%best hit $430 (245.6x)