1% PROFIT
A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$0.70
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.61 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.47%
47.6K openings, odds method
Variance
94.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 151
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.24% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (68.54% – 86.41%, 47,599 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 47.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 1 in 1,163 | $172 | 24.2% | 42 | 41.0 | 1.02× |
| AWP | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 389 | $58.10 | 24.4% | 90 | 122.5 | 0.73× |
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert | 1 in 312 | $46.10 | 24.2% | 147 | 153.0 | 0.96× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 268 | $39.44 | 24.0% | 144 | 177.8 | 0.81× |
| SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Field-Tested)weapon · gray | 99.0% | $0.02 | 3.2% | 47,250 | 47178.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/1-profit, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.70 | 87.50% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.70 | 87.39% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.70 | 86.79% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.70 | 87.01% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.70 | 87.66% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.70 | 86.58% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.70 | 86.78% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.70 | 87.39% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.70 | 87.59% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.70 | 86.72% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.70 | 87.53% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.70 | 87.13% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.70 | 87.50% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.70 | 87.01% | 5 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.70 | 86.98% | 5 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.70 | 87.39% | 5 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.70 | 87.28% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedred 0.1%Ancient 0.6%Covert 0.3%gray 99.0%best hit $178 (254.8x)