ADRENALINE
A case on Key-Drop (RISK ZONE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$7.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $6.12 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.60%
15.4K openings, odds method
Variance
20.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 60
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 400 | $478 | 19.5% | 30 | 38.6 | 0.78× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 169 | $205 | 19.8% | 83 | 91.1 | 0.91× |
| M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 119 | $144 | 19.8% | 127 | 129.8 | 0.98× |
| AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 11.1% | $10.77 | 19.6% | 1,856 | 1720.8 | 1.08× |
| AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6 | 15.2% | $7.93 | 19.6% | 2,291 | 2340.2 | 0.98× |
| Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 72.0% | $0.15 | 1.8% | 11,060 | 11126.5 | 0.99× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/adrenaline, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $7.00 | 87.50% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $7.00 | 87.56% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $7.00 | 87.04% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $7.00 | 87.48% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $7.00 | 87.88% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $7.00 | 87.27% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $7.00 | 87.33% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $7.00 | 87.88% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $7.00 | 87.23% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $7.00 | 87.14% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $7.00 | 87.46% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $7.00 | 88.09% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $7.00 | 88.11% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $7.00 | 87.52% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $7.00 | 87.04% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $7.00 | 87.55% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.00 | 87.67% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.7%pink 11.1%#d32ce6 15.2%blue 72.0%best hit $478 (68.23x)