AL FRESCO
A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$2.50
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $2.19 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.61%
69.4K openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.42% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.45% – 86.78%, 69,352 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 74.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/al-fresco, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $2.50 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $2.50 | 87.43% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $2.50 | 87.54% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.50 | 87.22% | 35 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%Immortal 0.0%gold 0.0%restricted 0.0%classified 3.0%pink 7.4%violet 42.8%blue 21.2%gray 8.8%blueLight 2.4%light blue 2.5%Rare 5.3%grey 6.4%best hit $581 (232.4x)