ALPHA
A case on Key-Drop (STICKER CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$15.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $13.13 from 40 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.93%
4,042 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,042 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/alpha-2, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $15.00 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $15.00 | 87.62% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $15.00 | 87.83% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $15.00 | 87.84% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $15.00 | 87.60% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $15.00 | 87.93% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $15.00 | 87.61% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $15.00 | 87.88% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $15.00 | 87.52% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $15.00 | 87.70% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $15.00 | 87.63% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $15.00 | 87.73% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $15.00 | 88.02% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $15.00 | 87.68% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $15.00 | 87.79% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $15.00 | 87.70% | 40 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.00 | 87.81% | 40 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.0%violet 33.5%pink 33.4%high 0.0%blue 4.6%red 24.8%High Grade 3.7%best hit —