AMPETER
A case on Key-Drop (YOUTUBERS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$25.00
Advertised RTP
87.87%
EV $21.97 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.93%
4,329 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,329 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Minimal Wear)gloves · Extraordinary | 1 in 143 | $232 | 7.4% | 20 | 30.3 | 0.66× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Minimal Wear)gloves · epic | 1 in 53 | $218 | 18.8% | 66 | 82.3 | 0.80× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 16 | $136 | 38.9% | 287 | 272.7 | 1.05× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 11.1% | $66.01 | 33.4% | 465 | 480.5 | 0.97× |
| SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 80.0% | $0.42 | 1.5% | 3,491 | 3463.2 | 1.01× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/ampeter, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $25.00 | 87.87% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $25.00 | 90.30% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $25.00 | 89.15% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $25.00 | 89.60% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $25.00 | 89.74% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $25.00 | 90.33% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $25.00 | 89.30% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $25.00 | 89.87% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $25.00 | 89.33% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $25.00 | 88.80% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $25.00 | 88.84% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $25.00 | 89.61% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $25.00 | 89.20% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $25.00 | 89.14% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $25.00 | 88.61% | 5 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $25.00 | 87.05% | 5 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $25.00 | 87.98% | 5 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.00 | 87.84% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedExtraordinary 0.7%epic 1.9%extraordinary 17.4%violet 80.0%best hit —