ANCIENT

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$21.42

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $18.74 from 77 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.29%

1,349 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

57.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

68 openings · below min

7 days

78.80%±7.021,132 openings

30 days

78.29%±6.441,349 openings

since tracking started

78.29%±6.441,349 openings

33.5%62.3%91.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.43% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (71.84% – 84.73%, 1,349 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	68	62.20%±28.3	—	odds
7d	1,132	78.80%±7.02	−2.4σ	odds
30d	1,349	78.29%±6.44	−2.8σ	odds
All	1,349	78.29%±6.44	−2.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values77 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,349 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,007	0.5%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$653	0.7%	0	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$340	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$291	0.3%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,667	$247	0.8%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 2,500	$187	0.4%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$164	0.5%	0	0.8	—
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$150	0.2%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$126	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$117	0.4%	0	0.8	—
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$115	0.4%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$114	0.2%	1	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$104	0.3%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$103	0.1%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$103	0.3%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$102	0.2%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$101	0.2%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$100	0.2%	0	0.5	—
Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 714	$94.33	0.7%	0	1.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$92.17	0.4%	2	1.1	1.85×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$90.13	0.3%	1	0.8	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 435	$75.88	0.9%	6	3.1	1.93×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 270	$70.80	1.4%	1	5.0	0.20×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$67.62	3.4%	11	12.5	0.88×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 204	$61.95	1.6%	10	6.6	1.51×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 192	$60.01	1.7%	8	7.0	1.14×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 192	$60.01	1.7%	4	7.0	0.57×
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 85	$59.61	3.7%	8	15.8	0.51×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$57.61	4.3%	28	18.8	1.49×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 159	$54.24	1.8%	12	8.5	1.41×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$53.21	5.7%	13	27.0	0.48×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$43.25	7.4%	31	43.3	0.72×
P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 53	$42.85	4.3%	17	25.2	0.67×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 79	$36.98	2.5%	4	17.0	0.24×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$35.74	6.0%	22	42.4	0.52×
FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 87	$35.36	2.2%	13	15.5	0.84×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 24	$30.50	6.7%	23	55.3	0.42×
P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 36	$27.86	4.2%	19	37.8	0.50×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 71	$26.26	2.0%	10	18.9	0.53×
P250 \| Undertow (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 31	$25.84	4.5%	33	44.0	0.75×
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 26	$23.66	4.8%	18	51.4	0.35×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$23.44	5.8%	32	62.5	0.51×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$21.51	3.7%	17	43.6	0.39×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 133	$20.91	0.8%	16	10.1	1.58×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 159	$20.70	0.7%	24	8.5	2.82×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 227	$19.83	0.5%	17	5.9	2.86×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 196	$19.39	0.5%	6	6.9	0.87×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 167	$17.52	0.6%	6	8.1	0.74×
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 84	$17.33	1.1%	11	16.1	0.69×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 156	$16.76	0.6%	6	8.6	0.69×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 152	$15.31	0.5%	9	8.9	1.01×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 145	$14.88	0.5%	16	9.3	1.72×
Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 833	$12.10	0.1%	0	1.6	0.00×
FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 99	$11.32	0.6%	10	13.6	0.73×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$9.74	1.5%	19	39.4	0.48×
FAMAS \| Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 63	$8.56	0.7%	12	21.3	0.56×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 244	$8.46	0.2%	4	5.5	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 345	$5.74	0.1%	3	3.9	0.77×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 526	$5.00	0.1%	1	2.6	0.39×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 91	$4.53	0.3%	14	14.8	0.94×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 233	$3.75	0.1%	1	5.8	0.17×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 60	$3.47	0.3%	19	22.7	0.84×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 55	$3.31	0.3%	21	24.4	0.86×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 141	$3.27	0.1%	4	9.6	0.42×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 128	$2.07	0.1%	12	10.5	1.14×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 83	$1.97	0.1%	15	16.2	0.93×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$1.89	0.1%	21	17.3	1.22×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 56	$1.84	0.2%	15	23.9	0.63×
Galil AR \| Vandal (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 38	$1.78	0.2%	36	35.2	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 43	$1.54	0.2%	33	31.7	1.04×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$1.31	0.2%	32	41.1	0.78×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$1.07	0.2%	28	42.9	0.65×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 29	$1.01	0.2%	40	47.1	0.85×
Galil AR \| Vandal (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 13	$0.91	0.4%	76	102.9	0.74×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 29	$0.82	0.2%	41	46.3	0.89×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 27	$0.79	0.2%	39	49.1	0.79×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 24	$0.71	0.2%	55	56.5	0.97×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/ancient, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ USP-S | FlashbackStatTrak · weapon · violetTK$21.42$1.390.06x5h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · violetTK$21.42$1.010.05x5h

M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff$21.42$0.790.04x5h

Galil AR | Vandal (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$21.42$0.910.04x5h

SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$21.42$20.910.98x5h

StatTrak™ USP-S | FlashbackStatTrak · weapon · violetTK$21.42$1.390.06x5h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · violetTK$21.42$1.010.05x5h

M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$21.42$1.540.07x5h

Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$21.42$67.623.16x5h

M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$21.42$1.840.09x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$21.42	87.50%	77
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$21.42	87.17%	77
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$21.42	87.26%	77
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$21.42	87.28%	77
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$21.42	87.63%	77
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$21.42	87.52%	77
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$21.42	87.41%	77
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$21.42	87.37%	77
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$21.42	87.41%	77
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$21.42	87.40%	77
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$21.42	87.24%	77
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$21.42	87.71%	77
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$21.42	87.46%	77
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$21.42	87.23%	77
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$21.42	87.30%	77
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$21.42	86.95%	77
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$21.42	87.44%	77
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$21.42	87.66%	77

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.2%classified 36.1%mil spec 0.1%pink 3.2%restricted 8.5%Classified 3.3%violet 18.2%blue 2.7%Mythical 2.1%#8847ff 15.0%#4b69ff 7.6%best hit —