APEX
A case on Key-Drop (STICKER CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$3.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $2.62 from 40 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.67%
8,644 openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,645 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/apex, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.00 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.00 | 87.72% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.00 | 88.03% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.00 | 88.26% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.00 | 87.99% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.00 | 88.00% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.00 | 88.06% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.00 | 87.92% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.00 | 88.21% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.00 | 87.68% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.00 | 87.60% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.00 | 87.37% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.00 | 87.51% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.00 | 87.46% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.00 | 87.62% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.00 | 87.75% | 40 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.00 | 87.64% | 40 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedpink 21.1%violet 50.2%high 0.1%red 3.6%#4b69ff 2.2%blue 22.8%best hit $201 (66.92x)