ASIIMOV
A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$14.65
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $12.82 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.52%
5,116 openings, odds method
Variance
7.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 21
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,116 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 5,000 | $1,425 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1 | 1 in 500 | $300 | 4.7% | 6 | 10.2 | 0.59× |
| P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 90 | $204 | 17.6% | 40 | 56.8 | 0.70× |
| M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 68 | $154 | 17.6% | 67 | 74.7 | 0.90× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 49 | $110 | 17.6% | 104 | 105.4 | 0.99× |
| AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 22 | $50.22 | 17.6% | 310 | 229.7 | 1.35× |
| P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 11 | $14.25 | 10.5% | 474 | 485.5 | 0.98× |
| FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 11.2% | $6.24 | 5.4% | 452 | 572.0 | 0.79× |
| USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 12.1% | $4.15 | 3.9% | 500 | 620.6 | 0.81× |
| PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $1.45 | 1.7% | 667 | 765.4 | 0.87× |
| P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted | 17.8% | $0.60 | 0.8% | 791 | 913.2 | 0.87× |
| P250 | Bullfrog (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare | 25.1% | $0.11 | 0.2% | 1,704 | 1281.6 | 1.33× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/asiimov, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $14.65 | 87.50% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $14.65 | 87.62% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $14.65 | 87.47% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $14.65 | 87.68% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $14.65 | 87.66% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $14.65 | 87.96% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $14.65 | 87.11% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $14.65 | 87.13% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $14.65 | 87.42% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $14.65 | 87.85% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $14.65 | 87.53% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $14.65 | 87.36% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $14.65 | 87.75% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $14.65 | 87.49% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $14.65 | 87.75% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $14.65 | 87.72% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.65 | 87.08% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%gold 0.2%covert 9.1%classified 32.8%restricted 15.0%Restricted 17.8%Rare 25.1%best hit $1,418 (96.76x)