AVALANCHE

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$0.74

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $0.65 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.01%

7,022 openings, odds method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.00%±7.52852 openings

7 days

83.09%±2.915,801 openings

30 days

84.01%±2.657,022 openings

since tracking started

84.01%±2.657,022 openings

76.0%84.0%92.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.61% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.37% – 86.66%, 7,022 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	852	84.00%±7.52	−0.9σ	odds
7d	5,801	83.09%±2.91	−3.1σ	odds
30d	7,022	84.01%±2.65	−2.7σ	odds
All	7,022	84.01%±2.65	−2.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,044 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$46.21	0.7%	0	0.7	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$13.65	0.4%	2	1.4	1.42×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$13.48	0.2%	1	0.7	—
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$12.77	0.2%	0	0.7	—
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$11.64	0.2%	0	0.7	—
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$5.18	0.4%	2	3.5	0.57×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,852	$4.30	0.4%	4	3.8	1.05×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 405	$3.61	1.4%	14	17.4	0.80×
Sticker \| First Bloodsticker · blue	1 in 331	$2.96	1.4%	15	21.3	0.71×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 55	$2.58	7.3%	89	128.2	0.69×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 54	$2.54	7.3%	126	130.2	0.97×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 1,064	$2.45	0.4%	2	6.6	0.30×
XM1014 \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 172	$2.10	1.9%	25	40.9	0.61×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 61	$2.05	5.2%	65	115.6	0.56×
Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 185	$1.78	1.5%	30	38.1	0.79×
SG 553 \| Triarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 163	$1.63	1.5%	29	43.2	0.67×
MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 139	$1.51	1.7%	22	50.8	0.43×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$1.48	4.2%	71	129.8	0.55×
XM1014 \| Black Tie (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 110	$1.48	2.1%	37	64.2	0.58×
XM1014 \| Black Tie (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 107	$1.46	2.1%	38	66.0	0.58×
MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 101	$1.29	2.0%	35	69.6	0.50×
Negev \| Power Loader (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 96	$1.28	2.1%	33	73.5	0.45×
MP9 \| Goo (Well-Worn)weapon · 3	1 in 97	$1.26	2.0%	35	72.9	0.48×
Negev \| Power Loader (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 91	$1.25	2.1%	44	77.1	0.57×
SG 553 \| Triarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 91	$1.22	2.1%	55	77.0	0.71×
SG 553 \| Triarch (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 91	$1.22	2.1%	37	77.0	0.48×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 16	$0.89	8.6%	244	439.0	0.56×
Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 36	$0.82	3.5%	96	197.4	0.49×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 13	$0.80	9.5%	262	543.3	0.48×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 119	$0.69	0.9%	60	59.0	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$0.53	4.4%	392	378.1	1.04×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 73	$0.48	1.0%	56	97.1	0.58×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 70	$0.47	1.0%	50	100.0	0.50×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 60	$0.42	1.1%	70	117.0	0.60×
P90 \| Grim (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$0.41	3.8%	417	419.0	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 61	$0.38	1.0%	68	116.2	0.59×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 42	$0.29	1.1%	115	169.7	0.68×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 38	$0.27	1.1%	107	187.5	0.57×
Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 16	$0.20	2.0%	262	448.8	0.58×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New)weapon · blueLight	1 in 12	$0.17	2.2%	657	595.7	1.10×
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$0.17	2.2%	610	595.7	1.02×
Sticker \| Boom Trailsticker · violet	1 in 11	$0.15	2.1%	650	626.4	1.04×
MP9 \| Featherweight (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 11	$0.14	2.0%	637	643.3	0.99×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/avalanche, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested)weapon · violetExecutoR$0.74$0.530.72x2m

P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$0.74$0.410.55x2m

MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$0.74$1.512.04x2m

Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested)weapon · violetExecutoR$0.74$0.500.68x2m

MP9 | Featherweight (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffKlemzila23$0.74$0.140.19x3m

Dual Berettas | Polished Malachiteweapon · light blue☣Zypki☣$0.74$0.390.53x8m

MP9 | Featherweight (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff$0.74$0.150.20x9m

XM1014 | Black Tie (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$0.74$1.371.85x9m

Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon☣Zypki☣$0.74$0.851.15x9m

Desert Eagle | Bronze Decoweapon · blueLush$0.74$0.300.41x15m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$0.74	87.50%	43
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$0.74	87.40%	43
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$0.74	88.36%	43
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$0.74	88.37%	43
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$0.74	87.89%	43
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.74	88.26%	43
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$0.74	87.66%	43
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$0.74	87.65%	43
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$0.74	88.13%	43
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$0.74	87.16%	43
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$0.74	88.01%	43
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$0.74	86.85%	43
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0.74	86.52%	43
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$0.74	86.63%	43
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$0.74	87.11%	43
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$0.74	87.62%	43
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0.74	87.91%	43

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 1.0%mil spec 14.7%classified 0.1%restricted 6.8%blue 11.9%#8847ff 2.9%Mythical 3.2%Restricted 0.6%violet 17.9%Uncommon 9.2%milspec 7.7%#4b69ff 15.6%blueLight 8.5%best hit —