BANANA

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$1.07

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $0.94 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.58%

7,792 openings, odds method

Variance

2.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

81.91%±9.68882 openings

7 days

82.34%±3.666,494 openings

30 days

82.58%±3.367,792 openings

since tracking started

82.58%±3.367,792 openings

71.5%81.8%92.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.41% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.23% – 85.94%, 7,792 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	882	81.91%±9.68	−1.3σ	odds
7d	6,494	82.34%±3.66	−2.6σ	odds
30d	7,792	82.58%±3.36	−2.8σ	odds
All	7,792	82.58%±3.36	−2.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,800 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$80.48	1.7%	0	1.6	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$36.60	0.2%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 4,762	$21.14	0.5%	3	1.6	1.83×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$14.35	0.4%	0	1.8	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 3,846	$13.48	0.4%	0	2.0	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 3,846	$13.42	0.4%	1	2.0	0.49×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,887	$13.28	0.8%	1	4.1	0.24×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,882	$12.84	0.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 862	$9.72	1.2%	6	9.0	0.66×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,266	$5.81	0.5%	1	6.2	0.16×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,250	$5.77	0.5%	2	6.2	0.32×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 417	$4.67	1.2%	16	18.7	0.85×
AWP \| Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,273	$4.61	0.2%	2	3.4	0.58×
SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 1,923	$4.59	0.3%	0	4.1	0.00×
SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 90	$3.34	4.0%	72	87.1	0.83×
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 99	$3.22	3.5%	61	78.7	0.78×
AWP \| Worm God (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 84	$2.97	3.8%	52	92.5	0.56×
MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 122	$2.88	2.5%	41	64.0	0.64×
AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$2.69	4.2%	52	112.7	0.46×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 140	$2.57	2.0%	37	55.6	0.67×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 71	$2.39	3.6%	51	110.4	0.46×
SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	1 in 32	$1.92	6.4%	132	242.0	0.55×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 45	$1.91	4.5%	98	172.8	0.57×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 45	$1.90	4.5%	91	174.6	0.52×
MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 52	$1.81	3.7%	63	148.7	0.42×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 91	$1.46	1.7%	52	85.6	0.61×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 84	$1.40	1.8%	64	93.1	0.69×
Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 74	$1.40	2.0%	61	105.6	0.58×
SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 77	$1.39	1.9%	77	100.8	0.76×
Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Well-Worn)weapon · 3	1 in 71	$1.37	2.1%	66	110.2	0.60×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 79	$1.36	1.8%	58	98.7	0.59×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 57	$1.34	2.5%	79	137.2	0.58×
Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 115	$1.33	1.2%	37	67.5	0.55×
Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 62	$1.28	2.2%	69	126.3	0.55×
SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 60	$1.22	2.2%	85	130.8	0.65×
SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 59	$1.21	2.2%	88	133.0	0.66×
Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 75	$1.07	1.5%	62	104.4	0.59×
MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 40	$1.00	2.7%	119	193.8	0.61×
Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 78	$0.97	1.3%	58	99.4	0.58×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 34	$0.89	2.8%	124	230.9	0.54×
Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	1 in 68	$0.88	1.4%	58	113.9	0.51×
R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 55	$0.82	1.6%	80	140.6	0.57×
Galil AR \| Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 19	$0.72	4.1%	423	418.2	1.01×
R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 24	$0.45	2.0%	195	325.9	0.60×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 15	$0.45	3.1%	550	504.7	1.09×
Nova \| Dark Sigil (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$0.26	2.2%	618	628.4	0.98×
SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 11	$0.21	2.0%	737	684.5	1.08×
Tec-9 \| Slag (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	10.3%	$0.14	1.5%	901	805.0	1.12×
UMP-45 \| Motorized (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	12.3%	$0.09	1.2%	910	959.9	0.95×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/banana, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue☣Zypki☣$1.07$0.090.08x1m

AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$1.07$2.682.50x2m

UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$1.07$0.110.10x2m

UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue☣Zypki☣$1.07$0.110.10x2m

Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueLush$1.07$0.140.13x17m

Sawed-Off | Limelightweapon · restrictedezxtassy$1.07$1.351.26x52m

Sawed-Off | Limelight (Well-Worn)weapon · 3ezxtassy$1.07$1.371.28x55m

AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare$1.07$2.372.21x55m

UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$1.07$0.110.10x55m

Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$1.07$0.110.10x55m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$1.07	87.50%	49
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$1.07	89.46%	49
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$1.07	87.65%	49
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$1.07	87.69%	49
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$1.07	86.84%	49
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.07	86.86%	49
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$1.07	86.82%	49
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$1.07	87.06%	49
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$1.07	87.35%	49
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$1.07	87.13%	49
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$1.07	86.51%	49
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$1.07	86.65%	49
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$1.07	87.56%	49
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$1.07	87.80%	49
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$1.07	88.32%	49
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$1.07	88.00%	49
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1.07	87.37%	49

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 1.5%3 1.4%covert 0.0%classified 0.1%Legendary 0.0%mil spec 9.4%violet 15.1%restricted 4.5%Uncommon 1.2%#8847ff 4.7%Rare 1.4%light blue 3.1%blue 50.9%milspec 1.8%#4b69ff 0.9%Mythical 4.2%best hit —