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BIEN PICANTE

A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price
$15.00
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
87.47%
5,863 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
462 openings · below min
7 days
88.51%±8.604,948 openings
30 days
87.47%±7.345,863 openings
since tracking started
87.47%±7.345,863 openings
70.5%84.3%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h46277.65%±6.58—sample
7d4,94888.51%±8.60—sample
30d5,86387.47%±7.34—sample
All5,86387.47%±7.34—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogKey-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$15.00$2,718181.2x
★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertpopedu138$15.00$95263.48x
★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertpopedu138$15.00$94963.30x
★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertTHE DECOY MAN$15.00$92461.58x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
UMP-45 | Wild Childweapon · pinkAqua$15.00$3.950.26x
AK-47 | Point Disarrayweapon · pinkAqua$15.00$18.431.23x
AK-47 | Rat Rodweapon · violetAqua$15.00$5.080.34x
P2000 | Wicked Sickweapon · pinkDANIEEE. AQL MUTAJAMMID$15.00$4.370.29x
Desert Eagle | Starcadeweapon · pinkAqua$15.00$34.822.32x
M4A1-S | Decimatorweapon · pinkAqua$15.00$16.591.11x
MP9 | Latte Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon$15.00$8.030.54x
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$15.00$4.970.33x
P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkDANIEEE. AQL MUTAJAMMID$15.00$5.900.39x
MP9 | Latte Rushweapon · pinkAqua$15.00$8.060.54x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $2,718 (181.2x)