BLACK
A case on Key-Drop (YOUTUBERS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$52.45
Advertised RTP
87.01%
EV $45.64 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.93%
1,382 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
51.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (75.42% – 86.44%, 1,382 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,382 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 15 | $162 | 24.0% | 76 | 93.0 | 0.82× |
| AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 16 | $143 | 19.7% | 64 | 87.0 | 0.74× |
| ★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 13 | $92.02 | 15.6% | 114 | 107.0 | 1.07× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 10.0% | $72.88 | 16.0% | 130 | 138.3 | 0.94× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 17.6% | $64.28 | 24.8% | 259 | 242.9 | 1.07× |
| ? Souvenir Nova | Mandrelother · gray | 51.6% | $0.01 | 0.0% | 173 | 713.8 | 0.24× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/black, 11 Nov, 20:53 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:53 UTC | $52.45 | 87.01% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $52.45 | 87.07% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $52.45 | 87.07% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $52.45 | 87.07% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $52.45 | 87.07% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $52.45 | 87.07% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $52.45 | 86.67% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $52.45 | 87.06% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $52.45 | 87.06% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $52.45 | 87.06% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $52.45 | 86.57% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $52.45 | 87.28% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $52.45 | 87.06% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $52.45 | 87.05% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $52.45 | 86.91% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $52.45 | 86.83% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $52.45 | 87.05% | 6 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $52.45 | 87.05% | 6 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $52.45 | 87.05% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 30.6%extraordinary 17.7%gray 51.6%best hit —