BLOODLORE
A case on Key-Drop (HALLOWEEN), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$99.00
Advertised RTP
87.65%
EV $86.77 from 25 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.89%
11.5K openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/bloodlore, 10 Nov, 02:22 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldLUCKY CODE = JUEG$99.00$1,66116.78x
★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emeraldcommend back$99.00$1,66116.78x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold????????????????????????????$99.00$49.300.50x
Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Factory New)weapon · blue????????????????????????????????$99.00$53.830.54x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.65%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $99.00 | 87.65% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $99.00 | 87.60% | 25 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $99.00 | 87.89% | 25 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $99.00 | 87.81% | 25 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $99.00 | 87.92% | 25 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $99.00 | 87.84% | 25 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $99.00 | 87.68% | 25 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $99.00 | 87.38% | 25 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $99.00 | 87.38% | 25 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $99.00 | 87.56% | 25 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $99.00 | 87.43% | 25 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $99.00 | 87.36% | 25 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $99.00 | 87.65% | 25 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $99.00 | 87.53% | 25 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $99.00 | 87.35% | 25 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 26.4%legendary 0.7%restricted 1.1%gold 19.2%pink 16.8%gray 6.9%Ancient 1.6%red 8.8%blue 8.9%consumer 9.5%best hit $9,981 (100.8x)