BULLET
A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$1.12
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.98 from 41 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.86%
8,598 openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.27% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.86% – 85.87%, 8,598 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,611 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/bullet, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1.12 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1.12 | 86.93% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1.12 | 86.55% | 41 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.12 | 88.01% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $1.12 | 86.84% | 41 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.12 | 87.84% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1.12 | 87.20% | 41 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1.12 | 88.15% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1.12 | 87.38% | 41 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1.12 | 87.25% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1.12 | 87.89% | 41 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1.12 | 87.69% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.12 | 87.47% | 41 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.12 | 87.43% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1.12 | 86.67% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.12 | 87.30% | 41 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.12 | 87.03% | 41 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed3 0.7%covert 0.0%classified 0.4%pink 0.1%#8847ff 6.3%Mythical 19.3%restricted 18.7%violet 15.8%Restricted 0.6%Rare 3.5%milspec 3.9%blue 12.4%industrial 18.4%best hit $80.71 (72.06x)