CALYPSO

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$30.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $26.25 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.86%

1,305 openings, odds method

Variance

3.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

76.69%±32.59117 openings

7 days

83.92%±10.511,139 openings

30 days

85.86%±9.821,305 openings

since tracking started

85.86%±9.821,305 openings

43.5%76.8%110.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	117	76.69%±32.6	−0.6σ	odds
7d	1,139	83.92%±10.5	−0.6σ	odds
30d	1,305	85.86%±9.82	−0.3σ	odds
All	1,305	85.86%±9.82	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,305 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,549	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 257	$423	6.3%	3	5.1	0.59×
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 214	$352	6.3%	5	6.1	0.82×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 140	$231	6.3%	12	9.3	1.29×
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 90	$149	6.3%	11	14.5	0.76×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 83	$137	6.3%	18	15.7	1.14×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 469	$127	1.0%	3	2.8	1.08×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 74	$122	6.3%	21	17.6	1.19×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 169	$103	2.3%	4	7.7	0.52×
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 62	$101	6.3%	21	21.2	0.99×
★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 57	$94.31	6.3%	27	22.8	1.18×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 275	$82.85	1.1%	4	4.8	0.84×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 191	$81.04	1.6%	7	6.8	1.03×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 153	$72.60	1.8%	6	8.5	0.71×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 148	$71.39	1.8%	7	8.8	0.80×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 156	$70.80	1.7%	4	8.4	0.48×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$67.62	2.8%	8	14.3	0.56×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 58	$60.01	4.0%	13	22.6	0.57×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 136	$58.32	1.6%	9	9.6	0.94×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 61	$55.26	3.5%	12	21.4	0.56×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 119	$54.51	1.7%	8	11.0	0.73×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 92	$54.24	2.3%	12	14.2	0.84×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 118	$54.15	1.8%	8	11.1	0.72×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 88	$53.21	2.3%	12	14.8	0.81×
MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 28	$46.21	6.3%	41	46.5	0.88×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 52	$34.71	2.5%	16	25.1	0.64×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$26.83	5.2%	83	65.8	1.26×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$23.67	2.9%	42	42.2	1.00×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec	64.9%	$0.38	0.9%	830	846.4	0.98×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/calypso, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Cyber Securityweapon · pinkゼロツー$30.00$27.790.93x3h

M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedゼロツー$30.00$23.770.79x3h

AWP | Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec$30.00$0.380.01x3h

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryゼロツー$30.00$94.313.14x3h

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryゼロツー$30.00$93.743.12x3h

AWP | Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec$30.00$0.380.01x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$30.00	87.50%	29
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$30.00	87.40%	29
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$30.00	87.80%	29
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$30.00	87.50%	29
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$30.00	87.64%	29
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$30.00	87.52%	29
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$30.00	87.20%	29
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$30.00	87.28%	29
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$30.00	87.23%	29
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$30.00	87.42%	29
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$30.00	87.15%	29
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$30.00	87.83%	29
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$30.00	87.67%	29
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$30.00	87.35%	29
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$30.00	87.67%	29
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$30.00	87.35%	29
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$30.00	87.44%	29
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$30.00	87.77%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.2%red 3.3%restricted 6.2%classified 10.2%extraordinary 1.7%mil spec 3.6%Mil Spec 64.9%best hit —