CAPITAL

A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$3.16

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $2.76 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.07%

6,732 openings, odds method

Variance

40.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 108

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.30%±50.67620 openings

7 days

80.84%±17.195,413 openings

30 days

80.07%±15.456,732 openings

since tracking started

80.07%±15.456,732 openings

43.0%94.3%145.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	620	94.30%±50.7	+0.3σ	odds
7d	5,413	80.84%±17.2	−0.8σ	odds
30d	6,732	80.07%±15.4	−0.9σ	odds
All	6,732	80.07%±15.4	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,757 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 10,000	$787	2.8%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 885	$280	11.5%	5	7.6	0.65×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 662	$209	11.4%	13	10.2	1.27×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 538	$170	11.4%	9	12.6	0.72×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 490	$154	11.4%	15	13.8	1.09×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 377	$119	11.4%	15	17.9	0.84×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 257	$81.04	11.4%	31	26.3	1.18×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 176	$55.32	11.4%	24	38.4	0.62×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 104	$32.83	11.4%	57	64.7	0.88×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$0.59	1.0%	410	309.5	1.32×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$0.53	1.0%	466	342.6	1.36×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 17	$0.38	0.8%	494	404.6	1.22×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 16	$0.36	0.8%	538	415.7	1.29×
USP-S \| 27 (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 16	$0.35	0.8%	512	421.6	1.21×
M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	1 in 16	$0.33	0.8%	557	434.2	1.28×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	15.1%	$0.06	0.3%	1,025	1018.1	1.01×
FAMAS \| Half Sleeve (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	21.3%	$0.03	0.2%	1,144	1439.8	0.79×
SSG 08 \| Tiger Tear (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	26.3%	$0.02	0.2%	1,442	1778.6	0.81×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/capital, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$3.16$28790.84x6d

AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$3.16$28189.05x3d

AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covertlenoxx$3.16$28188.97x6d

AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covertTHE K1NG$3.16$28088.69x18h

M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$3.16$23173.18x8d

M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$3.16$22370.69x6d

M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$3.16$22270.37x7d

M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covertfer_otake$3.16$22169.80x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon✯FAST7R✯$3.16$0.060.02x35m

Glock-18 | Wraiths (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff✯FAST7R✯$3.16$0.530.17x35m

SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon✯FAST7R✯$3.16$0.020.01x35m

AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon✯FAST7R✯$3.16$0.060.02x35m

FAMAS | Half Sleeve (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue✯FAST7R✯$3.16$0.030.01x35m

Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff✯FAST7R✯$3.16$0.360.11x35m

FAMAS | Half Sleeve (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue✯FAST7R✯$3.16$0.030.01x36m

M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue✯FAST7R✯$3.16$0.330.10x36m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$3.16	87.50%	18
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$3.16	87.93%	18
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$3.16	87.11%	18
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$3.16	87.13%	18
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$3.16	87.54%	18
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$3.16	87.53%	18
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$3.16	86.79%	18
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$3.16	87.83%	18
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$3.16	87.68%	18
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$3.16	87.64%	18
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$3.16	87.31%	18
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$3.16	87.15%	18
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$3.16	87.49%	18
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$3.16	87.58%	18
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$3.16	87.85%	18
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$3.16	86.81%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.16	87.71%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrare 0.0%covert 1.3%uncommon 0.6%red 1.0%mil spec 4.6%#4b69ff 11.2%Mil Spec 6.0%blue 6.2%light blue 27.7%Uncommon 41.4%best hit $287 (90.84x)