CERES

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$40.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $35.00 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.69%

1,869 openings, odds method

Variance

7.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

64.62%±45.91136 openings

7 days

84.24%±13.791,518 openings

30 days

81.69%±12.451,869 openings

since tracking started

81.69%±12.451,869 openings

18.0%64.5%111.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	136	64.62%±45.9	−1.0σ	odds
7d	1,518	84.24%±13.8	−0.5σ	odds
30d	1,869	81.69%±12.4	−0.9σ	odds
All	1,869	81.69%±12.4	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,869 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 10,000	$6,040	1.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 5,000	$3,100	1.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 5,000	$2,030	1.2%	2	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$1,685	1.0%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 299	$783	7.5%	3	6.2	0.48×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 239	$626	7.5%	5	7.8	0.64×
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 76	$199	7.5%	17	24.6	0.69×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 413	$197	1.4%	2	4.5	0.44×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 309	$170	1.6%	2	6.1	0.33×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 121	$153	3.6%	13	15.5	0.84×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$145	3.8%	15	17.4	0.86×
★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 51	$132	7.5%	37	37.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 159	$122	2.2%	7	11.8	0.60×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 138	$114	2.4%	8	13.5	0.59×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 173	$82.85	1.4%	13	10.8	1.21×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 99	$70.80	2.1%	9	19.0	0.47×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 27	$70.44	7.5%	58	69.3	0.84×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 88	$65.37	2.1%	15	21.3	0.71×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 86	$58.32	1.9%	14	21.8	0.64×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 75	$54.51	2.1%	19	24.9	0.76×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 58	$54.24	2.7%	27	32.3	0.84×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 47	$54.19	3.3%	26	39.8	0.65×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 74	$54.15	2.1%	16	25.2	0.63×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 60	$53.97	2.6%	26	31.2	0.83×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$53.21	2.7%	30	33.6	0.89×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 52	$50.22	2.8%	26	36.0	0.72×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 39	$43.99	3.2%	32	48.3	0.66×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 29	$42.85	4.2%	41	63.6	0.64×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 33	$33.91	3.0%	48	57.4	0.84×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 17	$28.80	4.9%	112	111.8	1.00×
UMP-45 \| Continuum (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	57.6%	$0.66	1.1%	1,081	1077.2	1.00×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/ceres, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3senseiKeS-_`$40.00$2,08152.04x5d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$40.00$80120.02x5d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertmuller$40.00$79519.87x6d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$40.00$75518.87x1d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1DemitoX$40.00$63915.96x7d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1$40.00$63915.96x8d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1$40.00$63415.84x4d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1skipper$40.00$62615.65x3d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1Fenoo$40.00$62315.58x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested)weapon · violet✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦$40.00$0.660.02x6m

AK-47 | Fuel Injectorweapon · red✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦$40.00$1373.41x6m

AK-47 | Neon Riderweapon · red✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦$40.00$59.101.48x6m

UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested)weapon · violet✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦$40.00$0.660.02x6m

UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$40.00$0.680.02x6m

★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$40.00$1924.81x6m

M4A4 | Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red$40.00$46.451.16x6m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$40.00	87.50%	31
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$40.00	87.51%	31
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$40.00	87.35%	31
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$40.00	87.75%	31
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$40.00	87.67%	31
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$40.00	87.58%	31
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$40.00	87.62%	31
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$40.00	87.61%	31
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$40.00	87.57%	31
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$40.00	87.58%	31
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$40.00	87.60%	31
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$40.00	87.54%	31
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$40.00	87.62%	31
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$40.00	87.63%	31
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$40.00	87.35%	31
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$40.00	87.46%	31
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$40.00	87.59%	31
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$40.00	87.72%	31

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%covert 23.8%restricted 0.0%gold 0.4%sunny 2.0%Ancient 4.5%red 5.7%violet 63.6%best hit $2,081 (52.04x)