CHAIN

A case on Key-Drop (BATTLE CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$115.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $100.62 from 55 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.84%

2,223 openings, odds method

Variance

10.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

136.08%±35.71315 openings

7 days

100.27%±15.641,723 openings

30 days

97.84%±13.732,223 openings

since tracking started

97.84%±13.732,223 openings

83.5%128.0%172.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	315	136.08%±35.7	+2.7σ	odds
7d	1,723	100.27%±15.6	+1.6σ	odds
30d	2,223	97.84%±13.7	+1.4σ	odds
All	2,223	97.84%±13.7	+1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,223 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$9,502	9.4%	2	2.2	0.90×
AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 227	$2,142	9.4%	16	9.8	1.64×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 213	$1,996	9.3%	10	10.4	0.96×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 120	$1,119	9.2%	23	18.5	1.25×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 58	$539	9.3%	36	38.5	0.94×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 500	$495	1.0%	3	4.4	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 588	$278	0.5%	3	3.8	0.79×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 222	$244	1.1%	8	10.0	0.80×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 139	$234	1.7%	8	16.0	0.50×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 167	$193	1.2%	12	13.3	0.90×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 108	$193	1.8%	17	20.7	0.82×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 44	$191	4.3%	66	50.5	1.31×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 147	$182	1.2%	13	15.1	0.86×
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 40	$173	4.3%	61	55.6	1.10×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 179	$155	0.9%	6	12.4	0.48×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 179	$154	0.9%	8	12.4	0.64×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 56	$148	2.6%	22	40.0	0.55×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 98	$148	1.5%	21	22.7	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 149	$142	0.9%	13	14.9	0.87×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 147	$140	0.9%	15	15.1	0.99×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 53	$136	2.5%	38	41.6	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 137	$136	1.0%	5	16.2	0.31×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 119	$127	1.1%	12	18.7	0.64×
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 28	$123	4.3%	82	78.2	1.05×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 27	$118	4.3%	98	82.0	1.19×
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 313	$115	0.4%	14	7.1	1.97×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 130	$109	0.8%	9	17.1	0.53×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 122	$105	0.9%	10	18.2	0.55×
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 143	$104	0.7%	11	15.6	0.71×
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 139	$102	0.7%	7	16.0	0.44×
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 125	$95.03	0.8%	8	17.8	0.45×
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 75	$88.77	1.2%	23	29.6	0.78×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 42	$83.05	2.0%	33	52.7	0.63×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 29	$74.06	2.5%	79	75.8	1.04×
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 49	$67.92	1.4%	32	45.3	0.71×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 263	$45.00	0.2%	6	8.4	0.71×
AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 345	$31.42	0.1%	6	6.4	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 85	$22.15	0.3%	15	26.0	0.58×
AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 116	$15.86	0.1%	12	19.1	0.63×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 46	$14.98	0.3%	27	48.7	0.55×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 44	$14.63	0.3%	32	50.5	0.63×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 43	$14.48	0.3%	30	51.4	0.58×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 114	$13.39	0.1%	14	19.6	0.72×
AWP \| Duality (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 112	$11.37	0.1%	18	19.8	0.91×
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 39	$7.93	0.2%	37	57.6	0.64×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 48	$7.85	0.2%	26	46.2	0.56×
AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 32	$7.01	0.2%	37	70.2	0.53×
AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 37	$5.72	0.2%	42	59.4	0.71×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$5.27	0.2%	57	87.4	0.65×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 24	$5.04	0.2%	76	93.8	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 21	$4.68	0.2%	70	105.6	0.66×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 22	$4.09	0.2%	60	101.4	0.59×
AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 19	$3.76	0.2%	77	116.0	0.66×
AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 19	$3.76	0.2%	84	116.0	0.72×
AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 11	$3.70	0.3%	136	201.2	0.68×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/chain, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$115$9,98686.83x6d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · coverttwitch.tv/pr1mefpss$115$9,71884.50x3d

AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covertyaojiakai1006$115$2,18318.98x2d

AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · coverttheomgcat$115$2,17318.89x2d

AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$115$2,17318.89x2d

AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · coverttheomgcat$115$2,17318.89x2d

AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$115$2,16918.87x4d

AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covertDeath13$115$2,14218.63x5m

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Black Lotusweapon · pinkDeath13$115$5.820.05x5m

M4A1-S | Chantico's Fireweapon · redDeath13$115$1461.27x5m

AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covertDeath13$115$2,14218.63x5m

M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkDeath13$115$5.300.05x8m

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$115$1761.53x8m

M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified$115$5.020.04x8m

M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$115$4.820.04x8m

★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$115$1241.07x8m

★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$115$72.150.63x8m

M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covertDeath13$115$1361.18x8m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$115	87.50%	55
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$115	87.61%	55
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$115	87.81%	55
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$115	87.49%	55
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$115	87.86%	55
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$115	88.09%	55
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$115	88.11%	55
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$115	87.56%	55
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$115	87.39%	55
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$115	87.53%	55
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$115	87.35%	55
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$115	87.59%	55
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$115	87.51%	55
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$115	87.79%	55
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$115	88.04%	55
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$115	88.01%	55
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$115	87.90%	55

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 20.5%extraordinary 5.0%gold 6.4%legendary 0.2%epic 0.6%red 4.9%Covert 3.7%classified 6.0%rare 3.5%#d32ce6 12.5%pink 23.0%Classified 9.0%Legendary 4.8%best hit $9,986 (86.83x)