CHAIN JOKER

A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$896.85

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

88.00%

262 openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

19 openings · below min

7 days

201 openings · below min

30 days

262 openings · below min

since tracking started

262 openings · below min

9.5%62.5%115.5%

Small sample. 262 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	19	35.95%±25.8	—	sample
7d	201	79.83%±26.5	—	sample
30d	262	88.00%±27.1	—	sample
All	262	88.00%±27.1	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogKey-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covertD. xGuGu$897$9,98611.13x5d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$897$9,98611.13x6d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$896$9,98611.15x7d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$889$9,87211.11x7d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert???????????????????????????? シ$871$9,50210.90x1d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$871$9,50210.90x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Green Energyweapon · pinkDeivid$875$14.030.02x3h

M4A4 | The Emperorweapon · redDeivid$875$1590.18x3h

AWP | Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rareDeivid$867$31.590.04x3h

★ Gut Knife | Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · gold$867$68.520.08x3h

★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$867$1400.16x3h

AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$867$2,0892.41x3h

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$867$1900.22x3h

★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$867$1680.19x3h

M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · redDeivid$867$82.910.10x3h

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$867$1900.22x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $9,986 (11.13x)