COOP CHAOS
A case on Key-Drop (FARM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$0.15
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.13 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.37%
183K openings, odds method
Variance
14.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
36.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.78% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (74.59% – 78.14%, 182,632 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 183K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/coop-chaos, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.15 | 87.50% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.15 | 86.32% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.15 | 87.06% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.15 | 87.29% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.15 | 87.57% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.15 | 89.61% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.15 | 87.53% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.15 | 86.63% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.15 | 87.50% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.15 | 89.83% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.15 | 90.32% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.15 | 86.43% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.15 | 87.50% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.15 | 86.98% | 15 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.15 | 87.50% | 15 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.15 | 90.66% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.15 | 84.91% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%red 0.0%pink 0.2%Mythical 0.2%restricted 0.3%Mil Spec 1.4%blue 66.4%gray 15.2%light blue 16.2%best hit $55.30 (368.7x)