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A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$50.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $43.75 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.79%

18.9K openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.91%±2.168,196 openings

7 days

88.79%±1.4318.9K openings

30 days

88.79%±1.4318.9K openings

since tracking started

88.79%±1.4318.9K openings

86.0%88.8%91.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8,196	88.91%±2.16	+1.3σ	odds
7d	18.9K	88.79%±1.43	+1.7σ	odds
30d	18.9K	88.79%±1.43	+1.7σ	odds
All	18.9K	88.79%±1.43	+1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$2,514	0.1%	0	0.4	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 33,333	$2,262	0.2%	0	0.6	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 20,000	$2,003	0.2%	2	1.0	1.96×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · legendary · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$1,587	0.4%	2	2.0	0.98×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 5,000	$1,208	0.6%	7	4.1	1.72×
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$806	0.4%	4	4.1	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 3,333	$787	0.5%	6	6.1	0.98×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,500	$619	0.6%	10	8.2	1.23×
Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 909	$374	0.9%	29	22.4	1.29×
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 213	$205	2.2%	108	95.9	1.13×
P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 85	$156	4.2%	248	240.7	1.03×
SG 553 \| Tornado (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 69	$128	4.2%	304	293.7	1.04×
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 37	$101	6.2%	610	548.6	1.11×
Nova \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 32	$87.40	6.2%	629	636.3	0.99×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 167	$82.85	1.1%	78	122.4	0.64×
FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 30	$82.70	6.2%	675	673.0	1.00×
G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 24	$70.73	6.7%	893	840.3	1.06×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 50	$67.04	3.1%	293	407.9	0.72×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 100	$62.50	1.4%	147	203.9	0.72×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 77	$58.32	1.7%	160	265.1	0.60×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 36	$57.20	3.6%	353	560.9	0.63×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 78	$55.32	1.6%	171	261.1	0.66×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$54.51	1.9%	281	303.9	0.92×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 66	$54.15	1.9%	222	308.0	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 139	$53.21	0.9%	86	146.8	0.59×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 44	$49.30	2.5%	250	460.9	0.54×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 43	$49.23	2.6%	231	471.1	0.49×
Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 12	$46.27	9.2%	1,848	1772.3	1.04×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 37	$27.36	1.7%	351	554.7	0.63×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	10.8%	$27.14	6.7%	2,183	2192.5	1.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 40	$26.55	1.5%	338	509.9	0.66×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 38	$26.29	1.6%	355	534.3	0.66×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 37	$25.23	1.5%	402	546.6	0.74×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 33	$23.34	1.6%	419	609.8	0.69×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 33	$23.00	1.6%	400	622.0	0.64×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$22.79	1.8%	497	715.9	0.69×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 28	$22.32	1.8%	514	738.3	0.70×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 19	$19.65	2.3%	701	1066.7	0.66×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 23	$18.34	1.8%	616	885.1	0.70×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$15.30	2.0%	758	1142.1	0.66×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 13	$14.65	2.7%	1,113	1615.3	0.69×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/country-site, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$50.00$2,00340.05x11h

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$50.00$2,00340.05x20h

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · legendary · Sapphirehh =DDDDDDD$50.00$1,61132.22x18h

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · legendary · Sapphire$50.00$1,61132.22x1d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$50.00$1,20824.16x16h

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlXSERTAKİ$50.00$1,20824.16x17h

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearllimadora06 SKINS$50.00$1,20824.16x1d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl(YT) USE CODE BETZY$50.00$1,20824.16x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialMia Khalifa$50.00$27.140.54x4m

Five-SeveN | Contractor (Factory New)weapon · consumerTiaguinho$50.00$46.270.93x6m

FAMAS | Bad Tripweapon · redもも$50.00$52.331.05x6m

Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialQİLİX$50.00$27.140.54x6m

Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$50.00$27.160.54x6m

Five-SeveN | Contractor (Factory New)weapon · consumerTiaguinho$50.00$46.270.93x6m

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommonもも$50.00$57.651.15x8m

Five-SeveN | Contractor (Factory New)weapon · consumer$50.00$46.270.93x8m

FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$50.00$82.701.65x8m

Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialQİLİX$50.00$27.160.54x8m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$50.00	87.50%	41
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$50.00	87.31%	41
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$50.00	87.58%	41
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$50.00	87.75%	41

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 8.2%legendary 0.0%rare 11.3%restricted 0.1%pink 16.2%gray 1.4%blue 6.4%Industrial Grade 4.1%red 9.3%uncommon 2.3%consumer 8.7%industrial 10.8%classified 21.3%best hit $2,003 (40.05x)