CRIMSON EMERALD

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$9.86

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $8.63 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.41%

4,363 openings, odds method

Variance

3.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

81.68%±12.44797 openings

7 days

83.12%±5.783,601 openings

30 days

83.41%±5.244,363 openings

since tracking started

83.41%±5.244,363 openings

68.5%81.8%95.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	797	81.68%±12.4	−0.9σ	odds
7d	3,601	83.12%±5.78	−1.6σ	odds
30d	4,363	83.41%±5.24	−1.6σ	odds
All	4,363	83.41%±5.24	−1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,368 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 10,000	$688	0.8%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$609	1.4%	2	0.9	—
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$595	1.4%	0	0.9	—
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$317	1.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 1,667	$162	1.1%	0	2.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$129	1.1%	3	3.1	0.98×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$119	1.1%	2	3.5	0.57×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 52	$36.64	8.2%	48	84.7	0.57×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 103	$35.14	4.0%	47	42.4	1.11×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 88	$32.65	4.3%	41	49.4	0.83×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 256	$23.44	1.1%	8	17.0	0.47×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 244	$22.91	1.1%	16	17.9	0.89×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 244	$22.71	1.1%	18	17.9	1.01×
P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$21.63	3.2%	57	56.3	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 75	$20.75	3.2%	64	58.5	1.09×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 256	$19.83	0.9%	15	17.0	0.88×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 217	$18.34	1.0%	21	20.1	1.05×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 179	$16.58	1.1%	16	24.5	0.65×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 263	$15.48	0.7%	20	16.6	1.20×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 154	$15.31	1.2%	30	28.4	1.06×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 167	$15.31	1.1%	15	26.2	0.57×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 152	$15.30	1.2%	23	28.8	0.80×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 167	$15.28	1.1%	38	26.2	1.45×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 145	$14.88	1.2%	24	30.1	0.80×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 156	$14.83	1.1%	73	28.0	2.61×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 24	$13.48	6.5%	88	183.0	0.48×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 21	$12.77	6.9%	124	203.5	0.61×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$11.64	7.6%	141	245.0	0.58×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$9.00	3.3%	88	138.5	0.64×
Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 16	$8.73	6.5%	277	279.1	0.99×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$8.68	3.3%	107	142.4	0.75×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$7.07	5.7%	311	303.6	1.02×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 11	$3.44	3.7%	408	404.9	1.01×
P2000 \| Panther Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 21	$3.25	1.8%	166	204.9	0.81×
P2000 \| Panther Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blue	1 in 21	$3.17	1.8%	156	211.8	0.74×
Souvenir M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blue	10.7%	$2.39	3.0%	495	468.7	1.06×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · blue	10.9%	$2.30	2.9%	477	475.7	1.00×
MP7 \| Prey (Factory New)weapon · gray	11.5%	$1.96	2.6%	554	504.1	1.10×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/crimson-emerald, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covertmika$9.86$61962.83x4d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covertmika$9.86$61362.15x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · blueCARLOS vorcaro$9.86$2.300.23x8m

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · blueCARLOS vorcaro$9.86$2.300.23x9m

MP7 | Nemesis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$9.86$8.650.88x9m

USP-S | Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$9.86$22.802.31x9m

Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blue$9.86$2.390.24x9m

MP7 | Prey (Factory New)weapon · gray$9.86$1.960.20x9m

Sawed-Off | Devourer (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedPièrre Sanchèz$9.86$8.730.89x20m

USP-S | Monster Mashupweapon · pinkMichalgar D. Law$9.86$23.012.33x24m

MP7 | Nemesisweapon · pinkMichalgar D. Law$9.86$8.840.90x24m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$9.86	87.50%	38
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$9.86	87.86%	38
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$9.86	87.92%	38
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$9.86	87.85%	38
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$9.86	87.87%	38
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$9.86	87.80%	38
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$9.86	87.57%	38
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$9.86	87.57%	38
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$9.86	88.08%	38
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$9.86	87.90%	38
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$9.86	87.79%	38
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$9.86	88.25%	38
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$9.86	87.78%	38
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$9.86	87.95%	38
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$9.86	87.87%	38
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$9.86	87.46%	38
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$9.86	87.66%	38
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$9.86	87.85%	38

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 0.0%covert 0.3%restricted 3.2%Ancient 1.0%red 1.1%classified 32.9%pink 11.8%blue 28.6%blueLight 4.7%light blue 4.9%gray 11.5%best hit $619 (62.83x)