DAGGERS
A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$0.60
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.52 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.76%
44.9K openings, odds method
Variance
29.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 59
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.93% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (72.07% – 83.46%, 44,855 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 592 | $65.58 | 21.1% | 92 | 75.9 | 1.21× |
| AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 159 | $17.55 | 21.0% | 238 | 282.1 | 0.84× |
| P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink | 1 in 110 | $12.18 | 21.0% | 282 | 406.5 | 0.69× |
| MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 1 in 19 | $2.05 | 21.0% | 1,172 | 2412.2 | 0.49× |
| XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 92.9% | $0.09 | 15.9% | 43,135 | 41742.3 | 1.03× |
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/daggers, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.60 | 87.50% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.60 | 87.50% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.60 | 87.49% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.60 | 89.23% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.60 | 87.73% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.60 | 90.22% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.60 | 87.73% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.60 | 88.57% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.60 | 88.80% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.60 | 89.94% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.60 | 87.68% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.60 | 89.68% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.60 | 86.10% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.60 | 87.45% | 5 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.60 | 87.49% | 5 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $0.60 | 87.50% | 5 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.60 | 83.52% | 5 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.60 | 86.54% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%pink 1.5%violet 5.4%blue 92.9%best hit $67.69 (112.8x)