DART

A case on Key-Drop (HOLO CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$2.80

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $2.45 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.14%

14.8K openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.89%±3.311,703 openings

7 days

85.63%±1.1911.9K openings

30 days

85.14%±1.0714.8K openings

since tracking started

85.14%±1.0714.8K openings

80.0%84.3%88.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.81% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.08% – 86.21%, 14,764 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,703	83.89%±3.31	−2.2σ	odds
7d	11.9K	85.63%±1.19	−3.6σ	odds
30d	14.8K	85.14%±1.07	−4.9σ	odds
All	14.8K	85.14%±1.07	−4.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AUG \| Lapis Lazuli (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 2,632	$10.95	0.2%	24	5.6	4.28×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 329	$10.60	1.3%	76	44.9	1.69×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 30	$8.74	11.9%	250	491.8	0.51×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 37	$6.93	7.6%	275	396.4	0.69×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 34	$6.39	7.6%	407	429.9	0.95×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 139	$6.10	1.8%	62	106.5	0.58×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 118	$4.70	1.6%	68	125.7	0.54×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 99	$4.34	1.8%	181	149.8	1.21×
P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 24	$4.11	7.1%	619	622.5	0.99×
AUG \| Lapis Lazuli (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 69	$4.08	2.4%	196	213.1	0.92×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 65	$4.02	2.5%	202	228.0	0.89×
MP9 \| Goo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 81	$3.59	1.8%	160	183.0	0.87×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 51	$3.55	2.9%	319	292.4	1.09×
XM1014 \| Ziggy (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 137	$2.96	0.9%	105	107.7	0.98×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 45	$2.84	2.6%	214	325.4	0.66×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 38	$2.67	2.9%	269	393.7	0.68×
AUG \| Lapis Lazuli (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 26	$2.60	4.0%	324	561.4	0.58×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 35	$2.55	3.0%	259	426.7	0.61×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 34	$2.48	3.0%	260	436.6	0.60×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 112	$2.31	0.8%	81	131.3	0.62×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 110	$2.25	0.8%	84	134.7	0.62×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$1.72	1.8%	241	386.5	0.62×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 34	$1.57	1.9%	270	439.1	0.61×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 39	$1.56	1.6%	264	378.7	0.70×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$1.54	1.9%	264	451.2	0.59×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 55	$1.39	1.0%	168	267.2	0.63×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 30	$1.30	1.8%	300	488.7	0.61×
XM1014 \| Ziggy (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 37	$1.29	1.4%	252	397.9	0.63×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 30	$1.29	1.8%	290	494.0	0.59×
XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 37	$1.28	1.4%	226	402.3	0.56×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$1.28	1.0%	184	296.7	0.62×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 49	$1.27	1.1%	188	300.0	0.63×
MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 14	$1.24	3.6%	665	1051.4	0.63×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 47	$1.24	1.1%	216	313.5	0.69×
XM1014 \| Ziggy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 34	$1.22	1.5%	285	430.2	0.66×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 46	$1.22	1.1%	189	320.8	0.59×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 47	$1.22	1.1%	235	317.2	0.74×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 44	$1.18	1.1%	210	332.5	0.63×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 43	$1.16	1.1%	213	344.3	0.62×
P250 \| Forest Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 41	$1.04	1.0%	225	361.0	0.62×
P250 \| Forest Night (Well-Worn)weapon · gray	1 in 39	$1.00	1.1%	234	381.3	0.61×
P250 \| Forest Night (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	1 in 37	$0.97	1.1%	275	397.9	0.69×
P250 \| Forest Night (Battle-Scarred)weapon · gray	1 in 36	$0.95	1.1%	274	409.7	0.67×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/dart, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Osirisweapon · violetPièrre Sanchèz$2.80$2.951.05x1m

UMP-45 | Wild Childweapon · pinkEquis$2.80$4.151.48x6m

MP9 | Gooweapon · violetEquis$2.80$1.590.57x6m

P250 | Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkthur_w3b$2.80$4.111.47x8m

P250 | Forest Nightweapon · gray1nfast$2.80$0.990.35x17m

PP-Bizon | Osirisweapon · violet1nfast$2.80$2.951.05x17m

XM1014 | Seasonsweapon · violet1nfast$2.80$1.600.57x17m

UMP-45 | Crimson Foilweapon · violet1nfast$2.80$2.851.02x17m

XM1014 | Ziggyweapon · violet1nfast$2.80$1.400.50x17m

XM1014 | Seasonsweapon · violetACHICHAU$2.80$1.600.57x18m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$2.80	87.50%	43
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$2.80	88.08%	43
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$2.80	87.91%	43
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$2.80	87.57%	43
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$2.80	88.02%	43
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.80	87.93%	43
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$2.80	87.83%	43
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$2.80	88.03%	43
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$2.80	88.01%	43
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$2.80	88.01%	43
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$2.80	87.43%	43
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$2.80	87.77%	43
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$2.80	87.90%	43
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$2.80	87.81%	43
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$2.80	87.59%	43
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$2.80	88.00%	43
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$2.80	88.14%	43

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedviolet 44.4%classified 0.3%Legendary 3.3%pink 14.1%restricted 10.8%#8847ff 2.9%Mythical 11.5%Restricted 2.2%gray 10.5%best hit —