DAVID

A case on Key-Drop (HOLO CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$390.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $341.26 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.14%

2,100 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.09%±7.44294 openings

7 days

87.80%±3.131,872 openings

30 days

88.14%±2.962,100 openings

since tracking started

88.14%±2.962,100 openings

80.0%88.0%96.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	294	88.09%±7.44	+0.1σ	odds
7d	1,872	87.80%±3.13	+0.0σ	odds
30d	2,100	88.14%±2.96	+0.3σ	odds
All	2,100	88.14%±2.96	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,100 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 5,000	$9,437	0.6%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 3,333	$5,414	0.5%	2	0.6	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,439	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 5,000	$1,812	0.1%	2	0.4	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 145	$1,208	2.4%	22	14.5	1.52×
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 137	$1,138	2.4%	16	15.3	1.04×
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 133	$1,109	2.4%	22	15.8	1.40×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 69	$868	3.7%	27	30.2	0.89×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 65	$810	3.7%	32	32.3	0.99×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 57	$710	3.7%	43	37.0	1.16×
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 53	$666	3.6%	44	39.3	1.12×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 64	$525	2.4%	18	32.8	0.55×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 22	$510	6.9%	64	97.2	0.66×
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 18	$418	6.9%	75	118.7	0.63×
★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 12	$382	9.6%	185	180.0	1.03×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 69	$375	1.6%	15	30.2	0.50×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 11	$360	9.6%	114	191.1	0.60×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 28	$339	3.5%	43	73.9	0.58×
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 27	$312	3.4%	177	79.0	2.24×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 38	$280	2.1%	26	54.8	0.47×
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 25	$277	3.3%	111	84.8	1.31×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 24	$266	3.2%	85	86.9	0.98×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 101	$262	0.8%	18	20.8	0.87×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$223	0.9%	22	29.0	0.76×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 22	$222	3.0%	113	96.8	1.17×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 71	$220	0.9%	17	29.6	0.57×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 21	$215	3.0%	91	98.7	0.92×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 70	$209	0.9%	21	29.8	0.70×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 69	$206	0.9%	26	30.5	0.85×
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 41	$204	1.4%	32	50.6	0.63×
★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 21	$204	2.9%	114	102.1	1.12×
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 41	$201	1.5%	46	51.7	0.89×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 31	$193	1.8%	55	67.0	0.82×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 19	$172	2.7%	121	112.8	1.07×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 46	$169	1.1%	37	45.4	0.82×
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 18	$156	2.6%	116	119.9	0.97×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/david, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2MonarchBeauty$390$5,58914.33x4d

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$390$1,8954.86x5d

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$390$1,8754.81x2d

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$390$1,4363.68x7d

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$390$1,3353.42x5d

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$390$1,3343.42x5d

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$390$1,3163.37x8d

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$390$1,3133.37x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3Polesz$390$5101.31x22m

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3Polesz$390$5031.29x23m

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$390$3810.98x23m

★ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epicalbertgilt$390$3120.80x1h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$390$2600.67x1h

★ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$390$3290.84x1h

★ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epicalbertgilt$390$3290.84x1h

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covertPro MMA Fighter$390$1560.40x9h

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$390$5101.31x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$390	87.50%	36
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$390	87.71%	36
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$390	87.71%	36
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$390	87.76%	36
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$390	87.74%	36
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$390	87.75%	36
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$390	87.67%	36
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$390	87.72%	36
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$390	87.93%	36
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$390	87.78%	36
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$390	87.71%	36
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$390	87.63%	36
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$390	87.82%	36
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$390	87.76%	36
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$390	87.99%	36
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$390	87.72%	36
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$390	87.89%	36

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%covert 66.2%extraordinary 16.5%gold 7.5%epic 8.4%red 1.4%best hit $5,589 (14.33x)