DEEP DIVE
A case on Key-Drop (WILD CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$4.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $3.50 from 44 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.41%
31.9K openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.86% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.23% – 87.59%, 31,873 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/deep-dive, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $4.00 | 87.50% | 44 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $4.00 | 87.69% | 44 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $4.00 | 87.86% | 44 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $4.00 | 87.82% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $4.00 | 87.90% | 44 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $4.00 | 87.71% | 44 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $4.00 | 87.83% | 44 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $4.00 | 87.81% | 44 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $4.00 | 88.02% | 44 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $4.00 | 87.95% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $4.00 | 88.12% | 44 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $4.00 | 87.98% | 44 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $4.00 | 88.24% | 44 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $4.00 | 87.82% | 44 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $4.00 | 87.77% | 44 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $4.00 | 87.97% | 44 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.00 | 87.96% | 44 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%gold 0.0%sunny 0.0%covert 0.0%pink 25.2%classified 7.1%blue 34.9%violet 19.5%Mythical 0.5%#d32ce6 1.2%restricted 8.1%#8847ff 3.4%best hit $601 (150.3x)