gambatracker
Live
Big wins
Cloudforge$39.14116.1xRavens Revenge$4,944351.2xHot to Burn$1,00010.00xThe Dog House Dice Show$313522.1xGates of Olympus 2500$1,047190.1xBig Bass Bonanza 3 Reeler$1,2556.10xSpeed Baccarat 1$1,9531.95xDice$1,584396.0xPrive Lounge Blackjack 5$2,0002.00xImmersive Roulette$1,6561.17xImmersive Roulette$1,8002.88xLightning Baccarat$2,5141.67x2026 Hit Slot$8,60943.00xDay Zero Outbreak$2,06941.22xSalon Privé Blackjack K$12.5K2.50xCrazy Balls$3,5409.83xJapanese Speed Baccarat B$2,0032.00xDynasty Speed Baccarat 2$2,0032.00xGates of Olympus 2500$90.67448.2xCrazy Balls$1,50413.75xSweet Rush Fiesta$2,01735.85xBlackjack$1,2002.00xKeno$7,286259.0xKeno$259259.0x

DESERT EAGLE

A case on Key-Drop (WEAPON CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price
$4.48
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $3.92 from 78 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.72%
8,927 openings, odds method
Variance
6.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
101.28%±20.25639 openings
7 days
88.37%±6.086,883 openings
30 days
88.72%±5.348,927 openings
since tracking started
88.72%±5.348,927 openings
80.5%101.3%122.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h639101.28%±20.2+1.3σodds
7d6,88388.37%±6.08+0.2σodds
30d8,92788.72%±5.34+0.4σodds
All8,92788.72%±5.34+0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values78 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,950 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 16,667$7871.2%10.5—
Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 12,500$5561.1%00.7—
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 12,500$5341.1%20.7—
Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,556$2281.0%21.61.24×
Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 4,348$1731.0%22.10.97×
Desert Eagle | Pilot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 3,704$1511.0%12.40.41×
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 2,326$92.171.0%43.81.04×
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 2,083$82.411.0%84.31.86×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 3,571$66.440.5%12.50.40×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 2,632$56.310.5%23.40.59×
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 3,030$54.190.5%23.00.68×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$43.310.1%20.4—
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 1,961$42.850.6%34.60.66×
Desert Eagle | Starcade (Field-Tested)weapon · rare1 in 3,448$40.630.3%12.60.39×
Desert Eagle | Starcade (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 3,125$38.640.3%12.90.35×
Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 3,846$37.600.2%02.30.00×
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 2,439$36.980.4%33.70.82×
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified1 in 2,128$32.890.4%14.20.24×
Desert Eagle | Starcade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon1 in 1,961$30.470.4%24.60.44×
Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 1,961$27.530.4%54.61.10×
Desert Eagle | The Bronze (Factory New)weapon · light blue1 in 9,091$27.390.1%11.0—
Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 2,041$27.140.3%14.40.23×
Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 1,429$26.640.5%06.30.00×
Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 1,176$24.230.5%27.60.26×
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 935$22.620.6%39.60.31×
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 862$20.750.6%610.40.58×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 16,667$17.590.0%00.5—
Desert Eagle | Night (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue1 in 77$15.355.1%83116.40.71×
Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 66$13.675.3%79135.30.58×
Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 114$12.742.9%4478.80.56×
Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 51$12.106.0%105173.90.60×
Desert Eagle | Directive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 309$9.540.8%2829.00.97×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 71$9.273.3%70126.60.55×
Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 260$9.110.9%2434.50.70×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 182$8.081.1%3049.00.61×
Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 16$7.1911.5%358562.10.64×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 40$6.994.4%155222.40.70×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 23$6.677.4%291386.60.75×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 21$6.337.7%277429.20.65×
Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 51$5.562.8%141175.30.80×
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 42$5.363.3%33213.00.15×
Desert Eagle | Naga (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 31$4.543.7%52287.40.18×
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 239$3.000.3%2637.50.69×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 237$2.880.3%2237.80.58×
Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 185$2.730.4%2948.40.60×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 133$2.330.4%4467.50.65×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 130$2.300.5%3968.70.57×
Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 105$2.200.5%6185.60.71×
Desert Eagle | The Bronze (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 30$2.131.8%193298.80.65×
Desert Eagle | Naga (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 91$1.990.6%5898.40.59×
Desert Eagle | Naga (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 88$1.950.6%55101.20.54×
Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 101$1.770.4%5788.60.64×
Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 99$1.740.5%5490.80.60×
Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 94$1.680.5%6295.30.65×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 86$1.390.4%53104.40.51×
Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 77$1.370.5%72116.70.62×
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 87$1.370.4%54103.00.52×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 82$1.350.4%65108.70.60×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 78$1.300.4%70114.60.61×
Desert Eagle | Directive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 70$1.280.5%83128.30.65×
Desert Eagle | Directive (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 69$1.270.5%70129.80.54×
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 74$1.220.4%70121.20.58×
Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 44$1.210.7%120201.90.59×
Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 44$1.210.7%112201.90.55×
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 71$1.190.4%67125.50.53×
Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 100$1.090.3%6189.20.68×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 41$1.010.6%134217.30.62×
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 153$0.910.2%4258.50.72×
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 20$0.690.9%278447.80.62×
Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 53$0.690.3%117169.30.69×
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 18$0.681.0%513508.31.01×
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 98$0.660.2%5591.60.60×
Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 19$0.600.8%279482.40.58×
Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 16$0.570.9%508545.40.93×
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 74$0.540.2%66121.40.54×
Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 35$0.510.4%169258.40.65×
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 68$0.510.2%74131.50.56×
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)weapon · 11 in 64$0.480.2%92140.10.66×
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/desert-eagle, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareiHuman7$4.48$786175.4x
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restrictedFrelsi$4.48$534119.2x
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted$4.48$509113.6x
Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert$4.48$23552.55x
Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert????????????????????????☂$4.48$22951.04x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Desert Eagle | Directiveweapon · violetmɅck$4.48$1.900.42x
Desert Eagle | Directive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedmɅck$4.48$9.362.09x
Desert Eagle | Directive (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$4.48$1.360.30x
Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$4.48$2.200.49x
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$4.48$0.660.15x
Desert Eagle | Mulberryweapon · violetelSimione$4.48$2.310.52x
Desert Eagle | Corinthianweapon · blueelSimione$4.48$0.670.15x
Desert Eagle | Sputnikweapon · bluephase$4.48$2.580.58x
Desert Eagle | Corinthianweapon · blueSAGE$4.48$0.670.15x
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industriesweapon · classifiedphase$4.48$6.901.54x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC$4.4887.50%78
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC$4.4887.82%78
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC$4.4887.70%78
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC$4.4887.41%78
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC$4.4887.37%78
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC$4.4887.34%78
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC$4.4887.90%78
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC$4.4887.05%78
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC$4.4887.89%78
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC$4.4887.74%78
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC$4.4887.76%78
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC$4.4887.32%78
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC$4.4887.79%78
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$4.4887.35%78
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC$4.4887.25%78
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC$4.4887.39%78
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$4.4887.44%78
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 1.6%rare 0.0%restricted 12.6%covert 0.2%classified 9.0%Ancient 0.1%uncommon 0.1%Classified 0.0%industrial 3.4%light blue 1.3%mil spec 14.3%blue 23.7%Industrial Grade 1.5%violet 12.9%Legendary 4.3%pink 4.3%Mythical 0.8%#8847ff 2.4%Rare 6.0%Mil Spec Grade 1.4%best hit $786 (175.4x)