DIABLO
A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$1.12
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.98 from 40 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.26%
8,453 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.81% – 86.71%, 8,453 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,463 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/diablo, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1.12 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1.12 | 89.15% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1.12 | 87.27% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.12 | 87.38% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $1.12 | 86.76% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.12 | 88.39% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1.12 | 87.73% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1.12 | 86.53% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1.12 | 86.33% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1.12 | 86.31% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1.12 | 86.78% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1.12 | 86.82% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.12 | 86.10% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.12 | 86.55% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1.12 | 86.63% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.12 | 86.72% | 40 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.12 | 87.76% | 40 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.4%Legendary 0.3%pink 1.6%Classified 1.6%restricted 7.1%Mythical 6.4%Rare 10.5%mil spec 10.0%blue 23.6%Mil Spec Grade 2.7%violet 5.1%#8847ff 4.9%milspec 1.5%#4b69ff 5.5%blueLight 9.2%light blue 9.7%best hit —