DOPPLER EFFECT

A case on Key-Drop (IMPERIAL CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$8.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $7.00 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.55%

37.6K openings, odds method

Variance

25.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 93

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

96.37%±12.386,266 openings

7 days

87.41%±5.6330.2K openings

30 days

87.55%±5.0637.6K openings

since tracking started

87.55%±5.0637.6K openings

81.0%95.3%109.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6,266	96.37%±12.4	+1.4σ	odds
7d	30.2K	87.41%±5.63	−0.0σ	odds
30d	37.6K	87.55%±5.06	−0.0σ	odds
All	37.6K	87.55%±5.06	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 33,333	$1,505	0.6%	2	1.1	1.76×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · legendary · Phase 2	1 in 14,286	$924	0.9%	2	2.6	0.75×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 3,333	$610	2.6%	11	11.4	0.97×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 833	$474	8.1%	53	45.4	1.17×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 769	$453	8.4%	46	49.2	0.93×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 667	$389	8.3%	52	56.8	0.92×
★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · gold · Phase 2	1 in 500	$287	8.2%	64	75.7	0.85×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · gold · Phase 2	1 in 455	$260	8.2%	67	83.3	0.80×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 455	$257	8.1%	87	83.3	1.04×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 333	$191	8.2%	100	113.5	0.88×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 294	$168	8.1%	91	128.7	0.71×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 200	$49.23	3.5%	199	189.2	1.05×
Sticker \| Ruby Wavesticker · red	10.1%	$4.93	7.1%	5,598	3803.4	1.47×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	11.9%	$4.27	7.2%	5,775	4496.0	1.28×
Sticker \| Bolt Chargesticker · pink	14.5%	$2.20	4.6%	5,907	5483.7	1.08×
XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	14.6%	$2.14	4.5%	6,028	5529.2	1.09×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	22.1%	$0.54	1.7%	6,798	8360.0	0.81×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	24.7%	$0.45	1.6%	6,965	9332.6	0.75×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/doppler-effect, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2mika$8.00$1,526190.8x4d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · legendary · Phase 2$8.00$962120.2x4d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · legendary · Phase 2尺のﾶﾑ丂んズﾑ$8.00$924115.5x13h

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$8.00$62077.50x2d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$8.00$61276.53x4d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$8.00$61076.30x8d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2shz$8.00$61076.24x11h

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2尺のﾶﾑ丂んズﾑ$8.00$61076.24x14h

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$8.00$60976.12x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested)weapon · violetfoxikkk$8.00$2.140.27x8m

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkfoxikkk$8.00$4.270.53x8m

XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested)weapon · violetfoxikkk$8.00$2.110.26x9m

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$8.00$4.270.53x9m

XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$8.00$2.110.26x9m

Sticker | Bolt Chargesticker · pink$8.00$2.220.28x9m

P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$8.00$0.530.07x9m

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkfoxikkk$8.00$4.270.53x9m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$8.00	87.50%	18
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$8.00	87.51%	18
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$8.00	86.99%	18
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$8.00	87.87%	18
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$8.00	87.48%	18
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$8.00	87.44%	18
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$8.00	87.63%	18
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$8.00	87.40%	18
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$8.00	87.81%	18
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$8.00	87.69%	18
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$8.00	87.51%	18
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$8.00	87.58%	18
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$8.00	87.06%	18
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$8.00	87.11%	18
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$8.00	87.99%	18
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$8.00	87.27%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$8.00	87.95%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.3%legendary 0.0%gold 0.4%red 10.6%pink 26.4%violet 61.4%best hit $1,526 (190.8x)