ELAINE

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$200.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $175.01 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.79%

1,123 openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

63.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

43 openings · below min

7 days

91.22%±7.86847 openings

30 days

92.79%±6.781,123 openings

since tracking started

92.79%±6.781,123 openings

82.5%143.0%203.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	43	166.41%±36.2	—	odds
7d	847	91.22%±7.86	+0.9σ	odds
30d	1,123	92.79%±6.78	+1.5σ	odds
All	1,123	92.79%±6.78	+1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,123 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 5,000	$9,664	1.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 2,000	$3,100	0.9%	2	0.6	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,429	$2,003	0.8%	1	0.8	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 909	$1,328	0.8%	2	1.2	1.62×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 625	$855	0.8%	2	1.8	1.11×
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 556	$783	0.8%	2	2.0	0.99×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 66	$745	6.5%	5	17.1	0.29×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 66	$744	6.5%	7	17.1	0.41×
★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 53	$602	6.5%	31	21.1	1.47×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 44	$499	6.5%	34	25.5	1.33×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 37	$423	6.5%	39	30.0	1.30×
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 37	$418	6.5%	29	30.4	0.95×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 34	$385	6.5%	47	33.0	1.42×
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	20.6%	$241	28.5%	238	231.9	1.03×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$190	3.3%	26	34.5	0.75×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 34	$160	2.7%	20	32.8	0.61×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 22	$153	4.0%	32	50.9	0.63×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 14	$92.38	3.7%	60	79.1	0.76×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$35.91	0.9%	19	48.9	0.39×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$35.74	0.7%	38	39.0	0.98×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$33.10	0.9%	40	55.6	0.72×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$30.80	1.0%	40	62.4	0.64×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 16	$28.80	1.0%	41	69.5	0.59×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 15	$23.44	0.9%	56	76.5	0.73×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$22.91	0.9%	44	79.3	0.55×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$22.71	0.9%	39	82.0	0.48×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/elaine, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦$200$3,10015.50x19h

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1✦✦✦⛓ѕσвσ⛓✦✦✦$200$3,09115.46x19h

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$200$2,06010.30x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertLonislide$200$1,3476.73x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertknash$200$1,3456.73x3d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby9K GW Code: BARU$200$8934.47x7d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertknash$200$7913.95x3d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1$200$7753.87x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · rareSACI COM 3 perna$200$2411.21x2m

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$200$30.980.15x2m

★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · rareSACI COM 3 perna$200$2431.21x2m

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01weapon · violetfer_otake$200$31.810.16x10h

USP-S | Monster Mashupweapon · pinkdex$200$24.800.12x14h

USP-S | Monster Mashupweapon · pinkDavidbsy | CS Trader$200$24.800.12x16h

AK-47 | Bloodsportweapon · redDavidbsy | CS Trader$200$1680.84x16h

★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · rareDavidbsy | CS Trader$200$2411.21x16h

AWP | Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertDavidbsy | CS Trader$200$3851.93x16h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$200	87.50%	26
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$200	87.66%	26
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$200	87.55%	26
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$200	87.46%	26
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$200	87.50%	26
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$200	87.61%	26
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$200	87.49%	26
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$200	87.74%	26
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$200	87.24%	26
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$200	87.58%	26
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$200	87.50%	26
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$200	87.67%	26
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$200	87.38%	26
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$200	87.61%	26
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$200	87.24%	26
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$200	87.26%	26
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$200	87.41%	26
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$200	87.42%	26

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 20.3%gold 1.5%epic 1.9%rare 27.7%Ancient 2.9%restricted 14.9%classified 10.3%violet 6.2%pink 14.4%best hit $3,100 (15.50x)