EMERALD VEIN

A case on Key-Drop (IMPERIAL CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$19.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $16.62 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.66%

21.1K openings, odds method

Variance

22.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 53

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

97.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

68.30%±15.353,606 openings

7 days

80.94%±7.1117K openings

30 days

82.66%±6.3921.1K openings

since tracking started

82.66%±6.3921.1K openings

52.5%71.0%89.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,606	68.30%±15.4	−2.4σ	odds
7d	17K	80.94%±7.11	−1.7σ	odds
30d	21.1K	82.66%±6.39	−1.4σ	odds
All	21.1K	82.66%±6.39	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 33,333	$8,426	1.5%	2	0.6	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 14,286	$2,003	0.8%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 5,000	$1,707	2.1%	3	4.2	0.71×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 476	$710	9.0%	46	44.6	1.03×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 417	$632	9.1%	50	50.9	0.98×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 385	$572	8.9%	39	55.2	0.71×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 357	$534	9.0%	44	59.4	0.74×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 345	$514	9.0%	63	61.6	1.02×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 172	$260	9.1%	88	123.1	0.71×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 154	$231	9.0%	107	138.0	0.78×
Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 10	$13.92	8.0%	2,100	2022.7	1.04×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New)weapon · blue	10.7%	$7.07	4.5%	2,420	2262.6	1.07×
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	10.7%	$7.02	4.5%	2,357	2269.0	1.04×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	10.7%	$6.98	4.5%	2,326	2271.1	1.02×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	10.7%	$6.93	4.5%	2,325	2277.4	1.02×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	12.5%	$4.15	3.1%	2,690	2655.2	1.01×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	14.3%	$2.63	2.3%	2,930	3045.8	0.96×
Nova \| Toy Soldier (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	18.3%	$1.01	1.1%	3,635	3882.1	0.94×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/emerald-vein, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldYüceTanGacıAçKangalYavrusu$19.00$8,456445.1x2d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$19.00$1,68088.45x1d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$19.00$1,66487.60x6d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$19.00$1,66487.60x8d

★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldXRMPAL$19.00$74038.97x8d

★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$19.00$74038.97x8d

★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$19.00$73538.70x7d

★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emeraldshz$19.00$73538.70x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedMontana$19.00$1.010.05x1m

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$19.00$57230.09x2m

Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$19.00$6.980.37x2m

P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$19.00$4.080.21x2m

Galil AR | Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$19.00$14.000.74x2m

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald$19.00$23112.16x2m

Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedMontana$19.00$1.010.05x2m

Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedPAU HENRY$19.00$1.010.05x23m

Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New)weapon · bluePAU HENRY$19.00$7.070.37x24m

FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkMontana$19.00$6.930.36x30m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$19.00	87.50%	18
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$19.00	87.46%	18
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$19.00	86.89%	18
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$19.00	87.65%	18
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$19.00	86.98%	18
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$19.00	87.44%	18
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$19.00	87.25%	18
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$19.00	87.49%	18
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$19.00	87.33%	18
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$19.00	86.85%	18
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$19.00	87.20%	18
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$19.00	87.54%	18
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$19.00	86.74%	18
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$19.00	87.07%	18
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$19.00	87.66%	18
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$19.00	88.09%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$19.00	88.06%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.6%restricted 32.9%red 0.7%pink 54.2%blue 10.7%best hit $8,456 (445.1x)